Mortgage Rates, the Housing Market & What Experts Expect for the Rest of 2026
If you've been waiting for mortgage rates to suddenly drop into the 4% or even 5% range, you're not alone. It's one of the most common questions I hear from buyers today:
"Should I wait for rates to come down?"
The reality is that most economists don't expect a dramatic drop in mortgage rates this year. Instead, the consensus points to a market that continues to stabilize with rates remaining in the mid-6% range for much of the remainder of 2026. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.58% in late July. Freddiemac.gcs-web.com
While that may not be the news many buyers were hoping for, it's important to remember that today's market looks very different than it did just a few years ago.
A More Balanced Market
One of the biggest changes we're seeing isn't necessarily interest rates- it's inventory.Compared to the highly competitive market of the past several years, buyers in many areas now have more homes to choose from, more time to make decisions, and in some cases, greater negotiating power. That means opportunities to negotiate repairs, closing costs, or seller concessions have become more common than they were during the peak of the market. For many buyers, that added flexibility can offset some of the impact of higher interest rates.
What Are Economists Predicting?
While no one can predict the future with certainty, several leading housing organizations have similar expectations for the remainder of 2026:
Freddie Mac reports mortgage rates are currently averaging about 6.6%, with rates continuing to fluctuate based on inflation and broader economic conditions.
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) expects existing-home sales to improve modestly during the second half of the year as inventory grows, while projecting mortgage rates to average around 6.5% in 2026. NAR also forecasts approximately 4% home price growth nationally this year. Nar-association
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) likewise expects mortgage rates to remain in the low-to-mid 6% range through the end of the year rather than falling sharply.
In other words, most economists aren't expecting a sudden return to the historically low rates we experienced during 2020 and 2021.
Waiting Can Be a Gamble
Many buyers are hoping that lower interest rates will make homes more affordable. The challenge is that if rates do decline significantly, more buyers are likely to re-enter the market. Increased demand can create additional competition, which may push home prices higher and reduce negotiating leverage. There's no perfect time to buy. Instead of trying to perfectly time the market, I encourage clients to focus on something they can control:
Is this the right time for you?
If the answer is yes—and you find the right home that fits your goals and your budget—it often makes more sense to move forward than to wait for conditions that may or may not materialize.
My Perspective
Real estate has always rewarded long-term thinking. Markets change. Interest rates change. Inventory changes. What doesn't change is that buying a home should be based on your financial readiness, your lifestyle, and your long-term goals—not headlines alone. Whether you're buying your first home, upgrading, purchasing a second home, or relocating to Northern Arizona or Kauai, understanding the market is far more valuable than trying to predict it. If you're wondering what today's market means for your specific situation, I'd be happy to help you navigate your options.